ДЕМОГРАФИЯ РЕСПУБЛИКИ УЗБЕКИСТАН: СОСТОЯНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗЫ РАЗВИТИЯ Научные исследования автора сделанные в 2018-2020 годах
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Abstract
The main demographic characteristics of the population of the Republic of Uzbekistan, i.e. sex and age structure of the population, number of urban and rural population, birth rate, etc. are investigated in this article. The aim of the article is to analyze the existing division of population according to the territorial principle as well as to study the totality of people living within a certain territory. As a research task the author has defined an attempt to estimate the expected parameters of reproduction of rural and urban population of the republic, besides, this direction is supplemented by consideration of aspects of dynamic growth of life expectancy indicator, at birth among urban population. Methods of work - methods of statistical analysis and synthesis, as well as forecasting of rural population reproduction in the Republic of Uzbekistan, in addition to that, the analysis of scientific literature, analysis of materials provided by the statistical authorities, and Internet - sources. In the article the analysis of scientific researches and its results in the form of population growth forecasts are given, these forecast values can be one of the most important initial data for decision-making within the system of development management of this or that region of the republic. The main result of the research is the derived forecasts, which are the conclusions made taking into account the expected population dynamics, for example, regarding the required level of development of social infrastructure and services or the choice of the most effective marketing strategies. The author gives a generalized description of the prospects for fertility and expected changes in mortality. The author focuses much attention on the assessment of future migration trends, since the complex nature of migration processes causes their high instability in time and space. As a result of the research and forecast, the author concludes that the population of Uzbekistan will grow dynamically and by the end of 2050 will reach almost 45 million people.
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